Hershey Company - HSY
29th October 2024
Overview:Hershey's stock (HSY) has been moving within a defined range over the past 10 months, rebounding between support and resistance levels. This range-bound behavior suggests a steady level of buying interest at the lower boundary, providing a floor for the stock after a notable decline. This type of price action often signals accumulation, where investors see value within a certain price range, building support for a potential bullish move on a medium-term horizon.
Technical Setup:Since May 2023, HSY has exhibited a series of falling wedges on the chart, each of which previously led to rallies up to the top of its trading range. Falling wedges are typically bullish reversal patterns, and a breakout from these structures often triggers upward momentum. Currently, we’re observing a smaller falling wedge with a pending bullish crossover on the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO), which is indicative of momentum building to the upside. The PPO cross aligns with other signals and is often a reliable indicator of trend changes, adding weight to this setup.
Current Outlook and Price Levels:On the shorter time frames, HSY is trading near the bottom of its range, making it an attractive entry point for a long position. Our initial target is the upper boundary of the range, with the 100-day and 200-day moving averages serving as potential resistance points along the way. These levels can also act as potential partial profit targets, allowing us to lock in gains incrementally while minimizing downside risk.
Trade Strategy:We’re entering a long position on HSY with the expectation that it will rally towards the upper end of the range. Given the bullish signals—the impending PPO cross, the mini falling wedge, and supportive range-bound activity—there's strong technical evidence for upside potential. If the price breaks out above the larger wedge formation, we could see a more extended rally, potentially beyond the current range and into new price territories. This trade offers a good risk-reward setup, with the support level nearby providing a natural stop-loss for the position.
With this analysis, HSY appears well-positioned for a swing trade, capitalizing on both the immediate technical signals and the broader range-bound structure. This setup is ideal for traders looking for intermediate-term opportunities with defined support and resistance levels.
bp.
10th November 2024
BP has been trending lower recently, down 6.5% over the past month, underperforming both the S&P 500 and its industry peers. The company’s latest earnings report showed a revenue decline of 10.5% year-over-year, with Q3 revenues at $48.33 billion and EPS of $0.83, which slightly beat expectations. Despite these numbers, BP's sales missed estimates, contributing to a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) rating, as earnings estimates have been revised downward for the near term.
BP is also undergoing a strategic shift, planning to exit the Dutch retail fuel and EV charging market by selling 310 fuel stations and 25 charging hubs, citing limited growth prospects. BP will retain some presence in the Netherlands through its Rotterdam refinery and other operations.
Technical Chart Analysis
Currently, BP’s price has dipped slightly below our entry point, extending positive divergence with the RSI and PPO making higher lows. Key support lies at 365, and if this level doesn’t hold, traders should consider stopping out to manage risk.
Trade Strategy
For now, traders should monitor support at 365 closely. If the level holds, the existing positive divergence on RSI and PPO could indicate a potential reversal, but given BP's recent downward trajectory, risk management is essential.
Summary
BP faces both market headwinds and operational changes, with near-term performance likely impacted by ongoing pressures in the energy sector. As the stock tests support, traders should remain cautious, maintaining stops to mitigate further downside risk.
9th October 2024
We've just entered a swing long on BP (LSE) after spotting bullish divergence on the daily chart—price made a lower low while RSI and PPO indicators showed higher lows. With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East threatening crude oil supply and a potential Israeli strike on Iran's oil refineries, crude prices could rise. Higher oil prices would benefit companies like BP due to increased profit margins on production and sales.
mu
10th November 2024
Micron (MU) has continued its upward momentum, recently gaining 9.96% over the past month, significantly outpacing both the Computer and Technology sector (+3.99%) and the S&P 500 (+3.16%). Investors and analysts have maintained a watchful eye on Micron's strong performance, especially as the company approaches its upcoming earnings release, where EPS is forecasted at $1.75—a 284.21% increase from the same quarter last year—and quarterly revenue expected to reach $8.71 billion (+84.33% year-over-year). With full-year earnings anticipated at $8.66 per share, reflecting a +566.15% change, and annual revenue of $38.12 billion (+51.79%), Micron’s momentum appears well-supported by impressive growth metrics.
Recently, Micron also topped the list of the biggest winners in the S&P 500 this earnings season, boasting an 88% increase in sales per share and enhanced profit margins. This is particularly noteworthy given the continued upward pressure on input costs across the industry, positioning Micron as a high-efficiency leader in the Computer - Integrated Systems industry, ranked in the top third for performance.
Chart Analysis:
Our entry into MU was off a divergent low at the start of September, and price has since broken above both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, a key technical milestone that has now established 108 as a strong support level. Currently, price is holding above this threshold, and we’re monitoring this support to see if it will sustain further gains. Technical indicators also show a bullish PPO cross and RSI hovering around 60, providing ample room for movement in either direction.
Current Targets and Stops: We’re targeting an upward move toward 130. Given the strong recent momentum and current support level, traders should have stops moved to entry, securing gains while allowing room for further upside.
Summary and Expectations
With Micron’s strong financial outlook, improving profit margins, and technical breakout above key resistance, we expect the bullish run to continue into the upcoming earnings season. Analysts’ revised estimates also signal a positive outlook on MU's growth potential, supporting our target as the stock shows signs of solid support and momentum. Traders are advised to continue monitoring the support around 108 and keep stops at entry to capitalize on this trend.
23rd September 2024
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is a leading global provider of memory and storage solutions, producing DRAM, NAND, and other memory products used in various technology sectors. Their innovations power the most advanced computing, mobile, and data storage technologies, making them a key player in the tech industry.
On the daily time frame, we're seeing bullish divergence with price making a lower low, while both the PPO and RSI are making higher lows. This is often a strong signal for a potential trend reversal. Given our positive outlook on the tech sector, we believe this presents a solid opportunity to go long on MU.
It's important to note that MU is currently trading below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which is a technical risk factor. However, we see support levels at $90 and $87.50, which we expect to hold. If these levels do, it strengthens the case for a bounce higher.
There is immediate resistance around $108, with further upside potential to $130, where resistance thins out. This creates a favorable risk/reward ratio for the trade, making MU an attractive long setup.
GOOGL
10th November 2024
Alphabet (GOOGL) has shown impressive growth metrics, positioning itself as a strong choice for growth investors. With a Zacks Growth Score of B and a Rank #2 (Buy), Alphabet continues to outperform, supported by projected EPS growth of 37.9% for this year—well above the industry average of 25.3%. Additionally, Alphabet has maintained strong cash flow growth at 16.7% year-over-year, far surpassing the industry’s -6.6%. This positive trend in earnings estimates signals market confidence in Alphabet's growth potential.
On the regulatory front, while concerns around antitrust suits loom, the market reaction has been positive, especially with Trump’s recent mixed comments on breaking up Big Tech. With two ongoing Justice Department cases against Google, regulatory developments may impact the stock in the longer term, but investor sentiment remains optimistic as scrutiny could lead to reforms without a full breakup.
Technical Chart Analysis
We entered our long position at the 200-day moving average backtest in September, and GOOGL has since risen about 15% from that entry point. Price is now well above the long-term moving averages, with a recent breakout above the 180 support level. We’ll be watching to see if this level holds as support over the coming weeks.
The technical indicators are solidly bullish, with a positive PPO and RSI nearing overbought conditions. Although this could lead to consolidation, strong catalysts support continued momentum. Traders should raise stops to entry and consider booking partial profits here, with additional profits to be taken around the all-time high near 192.
Summary and Expectations
Alphabet’s strong financial growth, favorable earnings estimates, and recent technical breakouts highlight the stock’s potential for continued upside. However, with regulatory scrutiny in the mix, traders should stay vigilant and secure gains at current levels. We remain bullish on GOOGL but advise partial profit-taking to manage risk in the current market environment.
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) – Objective Long Entry Around $150
Alphabet Inc., one of the largest and most influential companies in the world, presents a solid swing trade opportunity with an objective long entry around $150. With its dominance in online advertising, search engine services, and cloud computing through Google Cloud, Alphabet is considered a relatively safe investment, even during volatile market conditions.
The recent price action shows Alphabet falling below the 200-day moving average, while the RSI (Relative Strength Index) hit oversold levels, indicating a potential reversal. At the same time, strong support is visible around $150, which was identified and shared as a key entry point on X. With price holding steady at this level, the risk-reward ratio favours an upward move.
Key Technical Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: $150 – Strong support around this area, in conjunction with oversold RSI conditions, made this an optimal entry.
- Resistance: $175 – Traders should be cautious around this level, as it represents both horizontal resistance and the 100-day moving average. Taking partial profits here would be a smart move.
- PPO Indicator: The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) is curling upward, signaling bullish momentum. A crossover is imminent, further suggesting a possible breakout in the near future.
Alphabet Inc., one of the largest and most influential companies in the world, presents a solid swing trade opportunity with an objective long entry around $150. With its dominance in online advertising, search engine services, and cloud computing through Google Cloud, Alphabet is considered a relatively safe investment, even during volatile market conditions.
The recent price action shows Alphabet falling below the 200-day moving average, while the RSI (Relative Strength Index) hit oversold levels, indicating a potential reversal. At the same time, strong support is visible around $150, which was identified and shared as a key entry point on X. With price holding steady at this level, the risk-reward ratio favours an upward move.
Key Technical Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: $150 – Strong support around this area, in conjunction with oversold RSI conditions, made this an optimal entry.
- Resistance: $175 – Traders should be cautious around this level, as it represents both horizontal resistance and the 100-day moving average. Taking partial profits here would be a smart move.
- PPO Indicator: The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) is curling upward, signaling bullish momentum. A crossover is imminent, further suggesting a possible breakout in the near future.
Trade Management Tips:
- Partial Profit Booking: Booking partial profits around $175, where resistance and the 100-day moving average converge, is recommended to lock in gains.
- Raising Stops: As price advances, raising stops to protect profits is essential for sound risk management. A trailing stop can help capture further upside without risking too much capital.
With strong financial fundamentals, bullish technical indicators, and a solid risk-reward setup, Alphabet offers a well-rounded swing trading opportunity. Stay tuned for updates as this trade idea unfolds!
TSLA
10th November 2024
Tesla (TSLA) has seen a remarkable rally, with its market cap surpassing $1 trillion following President-elect Donald Trump’s victory. Tesla’s stock surged 29% over the past week, with a recent close at $321.22—a gain of 8.19% in Friday’s session alone. This surge has been driven by investor optimism that Trump’s administration will provide favorable regulatory treatment for Tesla’s autonomous driving initiatives, given CEO Elon Musk’s support during the campaign.
Analysts have been quick to weigh in. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives described Musk’s support of Trump as a “poker move for the ages,” highlighting the potential $1 trillion value for Tesla’s AI segment alone. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management sees Tesla’s accelerated delivery growth and autonomy prospects as solidifying the stock’s fundamentals, while CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson believes Trump’s victory could lead to quicker regulatory approvals, easing Tesla’s path to commercializing autonomous driving technology.
Tesla’s Q3 revenue of $25.18 billion, although slightly below estimates, marks an 8% year-over-year increase, further reinforcing the stock’s growth trajectory.
Technical Chart Analysis
Since our entry, Tesla has risen 46%, breaking through the key resistance level at 313, which is now acting as support. While the stock is currently overbought, with RSI at 75, the recent news catalysts could sustain these conditions, allowing for continued gains. Volatility remains high, but our outlook is still bullish for TSLA.
Profit Targets and Stop Adjustments: Traders should consider taking partial profits at current levels, securing gains from this impressive move. Stops should be raised on the remaining position to protect profits as we look toward all-time highs around $400.
Summary
Tesla’s surge past the $1 trillion mark, backed by favorable policy prospects under the new administration and robust technical performance, underscores the stock’s potential for further gains. With regulatory tailwinds likely and solid support levels in place, Tesla remains a strong performer in our portfolio. However, given current overbought conditions, traders are advised to take some profits while maintaining a bullish outlook on the remainder of the position.
30th August 2024
Tesla (TSLA) offers an objective entry around the $209 level. This entry point aligns with a key support level, coinciding with the 100-day moving average, with the 200-day moving average not far below at $195. Additionally, TSLA has been in a multi-year consolidation, and the $180 level provides further support.
Tesla can be volatile, especially with Elon Musk at the helm, but this could also work in favor of long traders. Upcoming AI robot announcements could potentially drive an influx of buyers.
Currently, both the PPO and RSI are flatlining on the daily chart, indicating no strong momentum in either direction. Nearby resistance is at $220, with further resistance around $270 and $300, where traders should consider taking profits.
Key Levels:
- Support: $209, $195, $180
- Resistance: $220, $270, $300
Be mindful of TSLA’s multi-year consolidation and the neutral technical indicators as you plan your trade.
ups
10th November 2024
UPS has faced a challenging start since our entry in mid-August, with the stock currently testing support at the 100-day moving average. Price briefly broke above the downtrend line and 200-day moving average, signaling potential bullish momentum, but quickly retraced, closing at or below previous resistance. With the PPO and RSI indicators in mid-zones, UPS has the potential to move in either direction. However, the bullish setup remains intact, and we anticipate a continued upward trajectory.
Financial and Strategic Overview
UPS recently released its Q3 2024 10-Q report, highlighting total revenue of $22.2 billion, a slight decrease from the previous year, but an improvement in operational efficiency reflected in an increased operating profit of $1.985 billion. Despite facing revenue pressures, UPS has continued to focus on long-term growth strategies, including debt management, strategic divestitures, and capital management, with $4.2 billion paid out in dividends so far in 2024.
UPS also announced a quarterly dividend of $1.63 per share, underscoring its commitment to shareholder returns—a practice they’ve upheld since going public in 1999.
The company faces ongoing challenges, such as macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds impacting its international segment, labor negotiations, and competitive risks. UPS is also actively managing regulatory, operational, and market risks to mitigate potential impacts on its performance.
Trade Strategy
Traders should have booked partial profits around $134 and raised stops to entry to protect gains. With further targets at $155, we’ll monitor support at the 100-day moving average for a continued bullish trajectory.
Summary
While UPS has encountered some resistance in its upward move, the broader technical and financial setup remains positive. The dividend announcement and recent financial stability add strength to the trade. Traders should maintain their positions with stops at entry and watch for a retest of previous highs. Further upside could see UPS testing the $155 target level.
21st August 2024
UPS is currently showing signs of a potential reversal. The stock has made a lower low, but the RSI is indicating bullish divergence with a higher low. Additionally, the PPO has crossed over, suggesting momentum may be shifting upward. This creates an opportunity for a move toward $134.50.
However, caution is warranted, as both PPO and RSI could pull back. To stay bullish, the price needs to hold above $120. With resistance likely around the $140 level, where the 100-day and 200-day moving averages converge with a downtrend line, traders may want to consider taking partial profits or raising stops.
If UPS breaks above $140, the stock could quickly target $155-$160 in the short term.
21st August 2024
ALB
10th November 2024
Albemarle (ALB) has faced significant challenges recently, reporting a net loss of $1.1 billion in Q3 2024, largely due to restructuring charges and declining lithium prices. The adjusted loss was $1.55 per share, missing the estimated $0.31 loss, while revenues dropped 41% year-over-year to $1.35 billion, missing expectations. This setback was driven by lower lithium market prices, which offset gains in sales volume, particularly from lithium projects in Chile and China. ALB’s stock has also underperformed, down 21.4% over the past year while the broader chemicals sector rose nearly 10%.
To counteract these market pressures, Albemarle has undertaken strategic cost-saving initiatives, including a global workforce reduction impacting 6-7% of its employees and a reduction in capital expenditures for 2025. The company expects these efforts to generate $300-$400 million in annual savings. Despite these challenges, Albemarle remains optimistic about long-term lithium demand, driven by electric vehicle (EV) growth, especially as EV price parity with combustion vehicles is expected by 2025.
Technical Chart Analysis
Our first target at $103.50 has been hit, with ALB consolidating below this resistance level. Currently, the stock is testing the 100-day moving average and the downtrend line around $103.50. We also have a bullish PPO crossover and RSI around 60, indicating potential for movement in either direction. If price can break above this resistance level, we’ll be targeting further gains toward $120 and $135.
Trade Strategy: Traders should now have stops at entry to protect gains and continue monitoring the stock’s behavior around this critical resistance area.
Summary
While Albemarle faces a tough macroeconomic environment, cost-cutting measures and a long-term growth outlook for lithium provide a solid foundation. With a key resistance test underway, ALB has the potential for further upside if it can break out above current levels. For now, maintaining stops and monitoring price action closely will be essential as the stock navigates near-term challenges.
21st August 2024
Albemarle Corp (ALB) has experienced a sharp pullback this summer, making lower lows while both RSI and PPO show bullish divergence with higher lows. The stock has begun to break out and is expected to move above the $87.40 resistance level.
The PPO is curling upward, and if momentum continues, the price could reach $100. However, there is significant resistance around the $110-$120 range, where a downtrend line coincides with the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. Traders might consider taking full or partial profits at this level or near $100.
To maintain the bullish outlook, the price should remain above recent lows.