completed trades

 Moderna (MRNA) has struggled to break out of its falling wedge pattern, despite oversold conditions. The stock has continued to decline, making the risk-reward from our entry point unattractive. Any potential bounce in the coming trading sessions is uncertain, and by now, all traders should have exited their positions to minimize losses.

Moderna’s recent earnings report highlighted mixed results. The company reported $1.86 billion in revenue for Q3 2024, a slight year-over-year increase of 1.7%, and delivered an EPS of $0.03, a significant improvement over last year’s -$1.39. These figures beat Wall Street estimates, with a revenue surprise of +47.73% over the consensus estimate of $1.26 billion, and an EPS surprise of +101.59% over the expected -$1.89.

Despite this revenue beat, Moderna’s performance was varied across different revenue segments:

• U.S. Product Sales increased by 33.1% to $1.22 billion, outperforming estimates of $728.42 million.
• Product Sales Rest of World dropped by 56.3% year-over-year, falling short of the estimated $362.69 million.
• Other Revenue declined by 43.2%, totaling $42 million compared to estimates of $16.30 million.

These results highlight Moderna’s strong domestic sales, though international sales and grant revenues have seen declines. While earnings beat estimates, the stock’s technical struggles and lack of a breakout signal a challenging road ahead.

While Moderna’s earnings report provided some positive surprises, the stock’s technical setup failed to confirm a bullish outlook. Without a breakout from the falling wedge, the risk profile remains high, and we recommend staying out of the trade until a clearer reversal emerges. This trade serves as a reminder to manage stops effectively in a volatile market environment.