U.S. Market Weekly Recap:

This week’s price action across U.S. indices tells a clear story: markets started with weakness on rising yields and cautious sentiment, but reversed sharply higher as falling bond yields, soft labor data, and strong tech earnings reignited the bullish trend. Despite the early dip, our swing long positions remain intact — with no signs on the higher timeframes suggesting a major or prolonged pullback is imminent.

---

Early Week Pullback (Sep 2–3)

• News Drivers:
  • Treasury yields spiked at the start of the week, with the 10-year yield reaching ~4.27%, sparking fears of tighter financial conditions.
  • Manufacturing data came in softer than expected, adding to concerns over economic momentum.
  • Trade tariff headlines and debt ceiling chatter pressured sentiment, with market participants eyeing potential risks to growth.
  • Tech, already trading at elevated valuations, bore the brunt of selling — with Nvidia, Amazon, and Apple all weighing on the Nasdaq.
• Technical Analysis:
  • NASDAQ 100: Dropped sharply into the 23,278 support zone, but buyers defended this level with strong volume. The rejection at that support suggested dip-buying interest remained healthy.
  • S&P 500: Pulled back toward 6,376 support, briefly losing the 200-hour moving average before reclaiming it. RSI dipped below 40 but didn’t trigger any broader bearish momentum.
  • Dow Jones: Tested key support just above 45,000, marking a higher low compared to the prior week — showing resilience despite the selling pressure.
  • Russell 2000: Spent most of the pullback consolidating, never breaking key support at 2,340, which suggested small caps were stabilising after weeks of sideways action.

The takeaway: bears attempted to press the market lower, but the failure to follow through signaled limited downside conviction.

---

Mid-to-Late Week Rebound (Sep 4–5)

• News Drivers:
  • Bond yields reversed lower — the 2-year yield broke below its 200-day MA, dropping to 3.59%. This sent a strong signal that the Fed may be forced to cut rates sooner.
  • The CME FedWatch tool priced in nearly a 100% chance of a rate cut at the September meeting, sparking broad-based buying.
  • Labor market data reinforced dovish expectations:
    • ADP private payrolls rose only 54,000 vs. 125,000 expected.
    • Weekly jobless claims increased to ~237,000.
    • Announced layoffs climbed, suggesting cracks are forming in the jobs market.
  • Tech sector leadership returned: Broadcom surged after earnings and a reported $10B AI chip order (rumored from OpenAI), while Amazon (+4.3%) and Netflix (+2.5%) broke out of consolidation ranges.
• Technical Analysis:
  • NASDAQ 100: Rallied from 23,278 up through resistance at 23,653, now testing 23,746. RSI is extended above 70, but the strong PPO separation signals momentum is intact. Unless a bearish divergence forms, dips should remain buyable.
  • S&P 500: Cleared resistance at 6,490, now sitting above 6,516 with a bullish PPO cross confirming upside momentum. RSI still has room before reaching extreme overbought levels on daily timeframes.
  • Dow Jones: Bounced from 45,170 and reclaimed 45,600. Price action suggests higher support is forming, aligning with the broader bullish structure.
  • Russell 2000: Broke above 2,378 resistance after consolidating for weeks, a constructive sign that breadth beyond tech is beginning to improve.

---

Swing Trading Perspective

From our standpoint, the pullback earlier in the week was monitored closely — but the lack of follow-through selling, coupled with Thursday’s reversal, confirmed that the broader uptrend remains intact.

• Higher Timeframes: None of the weekly or daily charts show breakdowns of key moving averages or long-term supports. PPO and RSI on these larger frames remain bullish to neutral.
• Swing Portfolio: We remain fully loaded on swing longs across the indices and individual equities. The rebound validates holding these positions, and until charts show evidence of a major trend reversal, we’ll continue to ride the bullish momentum.
• Risk Levels: Support zones at 23,278 (NDX), 6,376 (SPX), and 45,000 (Dow) will be watched as key levels. A decisive breakdown below these would force us to re-evaluate, but for now, the bull trend remains dominant.

---

Weekly Summary

• Early Weakness: Rising yields + tariff/manufacturing concerns drove a pullback.
• Reversal: Falling yields, soft labor data, and tech earnings sparked a rebound.
• Outlook: Overbought signals may create short-term consolidation, but no major sell signals exist on higher timeframes. Swing longs remain firmly in place.