On the 4th of July, the U.S. stock market was closed for Independence Day, but futures markets continued trading — and pulled back modestly across all major indices. This move helped cool off some of the overbought technical conditions that had built up during Thursday’s rally.
Looking at the charts:
- NASDAQ (NAS100): Price remains in a strong uptrend, but hourly RSI has dipped below 50. The PPO has flattened, suggesting potential short-term weakness, but not enough to signal reversal.
- S&P 500 (US500): Similar structure with a slight pullback. The 12- and 24-period MAs are still aligned bullishly and RSI remains neutral around 50.
- Dow Jones (DJI): Consolidating under recent highs, with RSI still holding above 60 — showing relative strength.
- Russell 2000 (US2000): Found support at 2218 and is still above all major MAs. The bullish breakout above the 200-day MA is holding so far.
Despite the pause in momentum, the daily timeframes across all indices remain bullish. PPO and RSI on the daily charts suggest we are still overbought, and a deeper retracement cannot be ruled out.
Meanwhile, macro news out of the U.S. — Trump’s tax and budget cuts have reportedly passed — could act as a catalyst for markets to push higher once digested.
🔒 Our approach today: No day trades. Conditions are not yet optimal for intraday setups. We will continue to monitor our swing long positions in the NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow, and Russell as the market unfolds post-holiday.
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