Last week, the market saw a mild bounce across major indices after several weeks of selling pressure. However, price action remains trapped below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with no meaningful test of either level—yet. We are still anticipating a larger bounce, but volatility could begin creeping back in as we approach the April 2 tariff deadline.
Technical Breakdown
On the charts, both the S&P 500 (SPX) and NASDAQ 100 (NDX) have bounced modestly off recent lows. The SPX is holding near the 5700 support zone, with resistance overhead at 5800 and the 100-day MA not far above that. The NASDAQ shows similar behavior, stalling just under the 100-day and 200-day MAs. RSI readings are climbing but remain under overbought territory, and PPO histograms are still on the bullish side for now—pointing to short-term strength.
But we’re not out of the woods yet.
The lack of follow-through last week hints at indecision. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also remains in consolidation and hasn’t reclaimed any major levels. Until these indices retest their major MAs, we’re viewing this bounce as corrective in nature—not the start of a new trend.
News & Macro Outlook
Markets popped higher Friday, led by a final-hour surge that ended a four-week losing streak for all three major indices. S&P 500 futures opened Monday morning up 0.6%, and the NASDAQ and Dow also posted weekly gains of 0.3% and 1.2%, respectively.
While the Federal Reserve remains on hold—signaling two rate cuts this year despite inflation concerns—the market now turns to geopolitical and trade developments. The key date on the calendar is April 2, when reciprocal tariffs from Canada and Mexico are set to take effect. This could reignite volatility as traders brace for global trade headlines.
This week’s data includes:
- Monday: U.S. Manufacturing PMI
- Thursday: GDP release
- Friday: Core PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation measure)
These reports will give fresh insights into economic growth and inflation pressure—and will shape expectations for the next Fed move.
Conclusion
The bounce may have room to continue, but technical resistance and geopolitical risk loom large. Until the market can reclaim key moving averages, we remain cautious and flexible—ready to rotate if conditions shift.
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